Updated: 2026-08-12
If you're planning a trip and want the most dependable dry day, your answer is July. In the long Met Office record at Rochdale, July has seen 895 dry days since 1947 — the highest count of any month. Across the same period, the average daytime maximum in July reaches 19.5°C average high temperature, making it the warmest month of the year in the Manchester region.
The choice isn't just about warmth, though. Manchester's reputation for rain is earned — the data shows a clear rhythm of wetter and drier periods. Any local will tell you that a sunny day in May can rival a dull one in August, but the long-term numbers from the Met Office station at Rochdale point to a fairly repeatable seasonal pattern that runs from 1947 to 2025.
The station at Rochdale, which sits to the north-east of the city centre, has been gathering this daily series since 1947-07-01, with records continuing through to 2025-12-31. That's a wealth of observations to base a travel decision on. Let's break down what the data actually says, month by month.
It's not just about the headline café-terrace moment. July averages a daily mean temperature of 15.4°C, with nights staying mild at 11.4°C and daytime highs reaching 19.5°C. That combination is comfortable for everything from a wander through the Northern Quarter to a day out in the Peak District. The average daily precipitation in July sits at 2.7 mm, which is actually among the lower rainfall rates on the calendar.
August offers a very similar thermal profile — an average high of 19.1°C and a mean daily temperature of 15.1°C — but it edges ahead of July on rain. The August record shows 953 wet days against July's 840, and a slightly higher average daily precipitation of 3.4 mm. If you can shift your travel dates, that July slot is the stronger bet for keeping an umbrella folded.
If you want to avoid the school-holiday crowds but still catch decent conditions, these two months are the standouts. May brings an average high of 15.4°C and a mean of 11.1°C, with the lowest average daily precipitation of the year at just 2.3 mm. It also records 886 dry days, the second-highest count in the series. The trade-off is cooler nights at 6.7°C — you'll want a jumper after sunset.
September holds onto warmth better than you might expect, with highs averaging 17.0°C and a mean temperature of 13.1°C. However, it sees 956 wet days and a higher daily rainfall average of 3.4 mm, so it's a month for flexible plans rather than guaranteed sunshine.
The table below shows the full picture from the Met Office series. Notice how the dry-day count remains solid from May through September, then drops noticeably when November arrives with its 1123 wet days — the highest of any month.
| Month | Avg High (°C) | Avg Low (°C) | Avg Daily Precip (mm) | Dry Days | Rainy Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 6.2 | 0.9 | 3.5 | 599 | 1133 |
| Feb | 6.8 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 619 | 936 |
| Mar | 9.2 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 811 | 924 |
| Apr | 12.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 834 | 904 |
| May | 15.4 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 886 | 852 |
| Jun | 18.4 | 9.6 | 2.8 | 800 | 851 |
| Jul | 19.5 | 11.4 | 2.7 | 895 | 840 |
| Aug | 19.1 | 11.1 | 3.4 | 813 | 953 |
| Sep | 17.0 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 725 | 956 |
| Oct | 13.7 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 714 | 1022 |
| Nov | 9.3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 586 | 1123 |
| Dec | 7.1 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 591 | 1026 |
Looking at the annual table below, you can see how both temperature and rainfall evolve across the seasons in this north-west corner of England.
| Month | Avg High (°C) | Avg Low (°C) | Avg Daily Precip (mm) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 3.0 |
| 3 | 9.2 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| 4 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 |
| 5 | 15.4 | 6.7 | 2.3 |
| 6 | 18.4 | 9.6 | 2.8 |
| 7 | 19.5 | 11.4 | 2.7 |
| 8 | 19.1 | 11.1 | 3.4 |
| 9 | 17.0 | 9.1 | 3.4 |
| 10 | 13.7 | 6.6 | 3.7 |
| 11 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 4.0 |
| 12 | 7.1 | 1.6 | 3.8 |
If you're hoping to dodge the rain, avoid the late autumn. November records 1123 wet days across the series — the highest count of any month — against just 586 dry days. December isn't far behind with 1026 wet days and 591 dry ones. The average daily precipitation in November climbs to 4.0 mm, the peak for the entire year.
October also deserves a mention, not for the temperature but for the sheer grey. It logs 1022 wet days, though its average daily rainfall of 3.7 mm is lower than November's. The pattern is unmistakable: from October onward, the dry-day counts plummet and the rainfall rates climb. If you're visiting for outdoor plans, this is when you want to reschedule.
For the truly cold-weather enjoyers, January is the coldest month on record, with an average high of just 6.2°C and a mean temperature of 3.5°C. February is nearly identical, averaging 6.8°C for highs and 0.9°C for lows. These months also bring a decent share of rain — January sees 1133 wet days, tied with November for the highest count. Snow is possible but not guaranteed; the data here speaks mainly to rain and cold.
If you can pick only one window, July is your month: the most dry days (895), the warmest high (19.5°C), and a modest daily rainfall average of 2.7 mm. June is a very close second, with a slightly higher rainfall average of 2.8 mm and slightly cooler highs at 18.4°C. Both months offer comfortable nights above 9.6°C, which means you can leave the heavy coat at home.
For those who prefer a quieter city, late May offers a fantastic compromise: the lowest daily rainfall of the year (2.3 mm) and a very high dry-day count (886), though you'll want layers for the 6.7°C evenings. Avoid November and December unless you're prepared for the highest rainfall averages (4.0 mm and 3.8 mm respectively) and fewer dry days than any other season.
Beyond the statistics, remember that this is north-west England — clouds are part of the charm. The pint of ale tastes better after a brisk walk in the drizzle, and a sunny day in Manchester feels genuinely special. But if you want the best statistical odds for blue skies and pleasant walking weather, book your trip for July.
Source: Met Office, official station data for Rochdale. Period analysed: 1947–2025.
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© 2026 HistoClima · data: Met Office (OGL v3.0) · not affiliated with Met Office · citation permitted with source.